INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR INNOVATIVE RESEARCH IN MULTIDISCIPLINARY FIELD

Rainfall variability can affect rural labour markets through agricultural production, labour demand, household income and occupational adjustment. This study examines the association between rainfall shocks and rural employment across Indian states using secondary data for 2023. The analysis combines state-level rainfall departures from normal reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) with rural Worker Population Ratio (WPR) estimates for persons aged 15 years and above under usual status from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023–24. The empirical analysis covers 28 states and estimates a cross-sectional ordinary least squares model with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. The estimated coefficient on rainfall departure is positive but statistically insignificant: a one-percentage-point increase in rainfall departure is associated with an estimated 0.080 percentage-point increase in rural WPR, with a robust standard error of 0.079 and a p-value of 0.311. The model explains approximately 2.75 per cent of the cross-state variation in rural WPR. The results therefore do not provide statistically significant evidence of a linear relationship between the 2023 rainfall shock measure and rural employment across states. This finding should not be interpreted as evidence that rainfall is economically irrelevant. State-level employment responses may be mediated by irrigation, agricultural diversification, migration, non-farm employment, public employment programmes and differences in the timing and geographical distribution of rainfall. The study highlights the limitations of cross-sectional state-level analysis and establishes a basis for future panel and district-level research using repeated PLFS and meteorological observations.