31, December 2025

Estimating Housing Requirements Using Demographic and Affordability Models in Ahmedabad District, Gujarat (2022–2027)

VOLUME-11; ISSUE-12; DEC-2025

Author(s): Pankaj Kumar D. Parmar¹, Dr. Sanjay Patel²

Authors Affiliations:

1 Research Scholar & Assistant Professor, M.G. Science Institute, Ahmedabad, India.

2 Assistant Professor & Head, Department of Statistics, Udhana Citizen Commerce College, Surat, India.

DOIs:10.2015/IJIRMF/202512040     |     Paper ID: IJIRMF202512040


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Apart from that, rapid urbanization and sustained economic growth have transformed Ahmedabad District into one of Gujarat’s most densely populated and industrially dynamic regions. This paper develops an integrated framework to predict population growth and estimate urban housing needs for 2022–2027. Using data from the Census (1951–2011), NFHS-5, AMC records, MoHUA reports, and other secondary sources, the study models population growth through curve estimation (quadratic, growth, exponential) and time-series analysis (ARIMA (1,2,0)). The quadratic model with an R² of 0.985 emerges as the most suitable district-level projection model, supported by ARIMA for short-term trends.

These projections then form the basis for estimating housing requirements without altering existing structural attributes. Four complementary approaches are applied: (i) Household-Based Projection Method, (ii) Component-Based Method (UN-Habitat’s age-specific headship rates), (iii) Housing Stock–Incremental Deficit Method used in MoHUA’s TG-12 and TG-18 reports, and (iv) Affordability–Income Distribution Method based on income groups (EWS, LIG, MIG, HIG) and a 30% affordability threshold. Results show that annual housing needs range from 22,000 to 30,000 units under the affordability-effective demand approach which rise to 2.3–2.6 lakh units when using the housing stock–incremental deficit method, which incorporates congestion, slums, dilapidation, and homelessness.

The comparative assessment indicates that demographic growth is only one driver of new housing demand, while structural deficits and affordability constraints critically shape the actual magnitude and composition of housing needs. In Ahmedabad, EWS and LIG households account for most incremental demand, underscoring the need for pro-poor, subsidy-supported, and spatially focused housing interventions. The study concludes that an integrated framework combining demographic projections, stock assessment, and affordability criteria is more effective for guiding future urban housing strategies in rapidly expanding Indian cities

Ahmedabad; population projection; urban housing need; ARIMA; affordability; EWS/LIG; UN-Habitat; MoHUA

Pankaj Kumar D. Parmar¹, Dr. Sanjay Patel² (2025); Estimating Housing Requirements Using Demographic and Affordability Models in Ahmedabad District, Gujarat (2022–2027), International Journal for Innovative Research in Multidisciplinary Field, ISSN(O): 2455-0620, Vol-11, Issue-12, Pp. 273-281.         Available on –   https://www.ijirmf.com/

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